Author Topic: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet  (Read 38678 times)

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #270 on: June 14, 2020, 12:44:17 AM »
Well, FWIW I know the seller has had it for several years or more, so it's not one that's been on YAJ in recent memory. You could also try messaging the buyer, who posted in that thread.  ;)

It's certainly plausible that some AK PCBs were converted to SDOJ. Maybe a lot (100?). Although the original run was clearly 300 PCBs based on the serial number data, the game was a huge flop in the arcades, and when they were making SDOJ they were low on parts, so repurposing unsold AK PCBs would have made sense, and would have been in line with CAVE's previous practices in similar situations.

One factor that speaks against this theory (at least on a large scale) is I haven't seen a SDOJ PCB with an AK date stamp on the back. And remember, many AK PCBs were converted from DFK (based on date stamps!). So if they were originally AK PCBs we would have to posit they removed all the date stamps and placed new ones on, and we don't have any evidence that they did this prior, except perhaps for MFBL AV (and even that is far from proven).

Ultimately, tracking the serials of the few AK PCBs that show up for sale every year is not going to provide any answer to the question in our lifetimes (but maybe our grandchildren will finally know the truth!!). It could be that a lot of people are just keeping the PCB and not selling it.
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Offline Liquidus0

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #271 on: June 16, 2020, 05:42:30 PM »
Espgaluda with damaged instructions and new battery sold on YAJ for 83 000 Yen.

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/l475758675

Dodonpachi Daioujou with metal case, new battery and new fan. Likely sold for 90 000 Yen (Was listed at 100 000 Yen, but there was an active 10% coupon sitewide). On Stefano Bruni webstore.

https://from-japan-retro-sale.myshopify.com/collections/frontpage/products/dodonpachi-daioujou-cave-arcade-pcb-japan-2

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #272 on: June 17, 2020, 09:35:43 PM »
Dodonpachi DFK BL + original artset + folded poster sold for a 440,000 yen buy-now price, less than a day after it was listed.

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/w396460680

It doesn't look like a proxy bidder.
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Offline Liquidus0

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #273 on: June 27, 2020, 10:20:24 AM »
Dodonpachi Saidaioujou PCB sold for 3 500 £ on Arcade Otaku forum.

https://forum.arcadeotaku.com/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=41847

Dodonpachi Daioujou PCB with old battery and some damage (trace of acid), but working sold for 440 € and Art Set sold for 135 € on Arcade Otaku forum.

https://forum.arcadeotaku.com/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=41620

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #274 on: July 19, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »
Several Mushihimesama PCBs have sold in the past week.

-Mushihimesama PCB sold for 92,111 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/h487418970

-Mushihimesama PCB sold for 101,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/t739180550

-Mushihimesama Futari Black Label Japanese PCB sold for a 200,000 yen buy-now price. Does not look like a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/v734014276

And I sold a Mushihimesama Futari Black Label Japanese partial kit (PCB + mint artset) for $2500 today.

Other games:

-Espgaluda 2 PCB sold for 99,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/q381295468

-Dodonpachi Daioujou PCB sold for 75,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/c838573918
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Offline RandomRetro

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #275 on: July 20, 2020, 01:11:23 PM »
More sales:

- Esp Ra De PCB and Box (Art + Instructions reprint) sold for 71,111 yen, at auction:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/j658270666

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #276 on: July 20, 2020, 08:40:16 PM »
Suruga-ya sold a DFK 1.5 PCB for 188,000 yen:

https://www.suruga-ya.jp/product/detail/180001179

It took less than a week for them to sell it.
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Offline jbuenomd

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #277 on: July 21, 2020, 12:44:55 AM »
Several Mushihimesama PCBs have sold in the past week.

-Mushihimesama PCB sold for 92,111 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/h487418970

-Mushihimesama PCB sold for 101,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/t739180550

-Mushihimesama Futari Black Label Japanese PCB sold for a 200,000 yen buy-now price. Does not look like a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/v734014276

And I sold a Mushihimesama Futari Black Label Japanese partial kit (PCB + mint artset) for $2500 today.

Other games:

-Espgaluda 2 PCB sold for 99,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/q381295468

-Dodonpachi Daioujou PCB sold for 75,000 yen, at auction, to a proxy bidder:
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/c838573918

Man I was bidding on that Espgaluda 2 board until the last minute, didn't register my last bid. Actually been hunting YAJ for awhile for that one. For the price it went for, I should just buy it at Tops.

Offline ookitarepanda

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #278 on: July 21, 2020, 07:29:21 PM »
Man I was bidding on that Espgaluda 2 board until the last minute, didn't register my last bid. Actually been hunting YAJ for awhile for that one. For the price it went for, I should just buy it at Tops.

Yeah I was a little shocked at how high it went. I think that tends to happen when there hasn't been an auction for one in a while. People get this mentality of "oh snap, it finally popped up, I have to get this one!" But then next thing you know, a couple more people list them in the coming months and the price goes back down...

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #279 on: July 21, 2020, 07:43:54 PM »
The Mushihimesama PCB price is on the rise too, which surprised me. A year or two ago they would sell for around 60-70k yen on YAJ, now they go for around 100k.

Relative to other SH3 STG PCBs, and when taking into account production numbers, Espgaluda 2 is easily the most undervalued of them all. They only made 800 of them, roughly the same as Deathsmiles or DFK 1.5, but the latter two sell for 2-3x as much as E2, which doesn't make a lot of sense (especially since all three games are highly regarded). If I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it remaining undervalued in the coming years.
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Offline jbuenomd

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #280 on: July 22, 2020, 11:14:09 PM »
Yeah I was a little shocked at how high it went. I think that tends to happen when there hasn't been an auction for one in a while. People get this mentality of "oh snap, it finally popped up, I have to get this one!" But then next thing you know, a couple more people list them in the coming months and the price goes back down...

It sucks because I saw the board in Japan twice last year, last year in February they had a board in Surugaya for 80K yen but didnt buy it, and back in March when Corona hit, KVC had it for the same price plus original box but it sold out when I asked for it. Sucks because I avoid buying boards online as I'd rather save up and go to Japan and shop, but given the current state of affairs I'm just looking at YAJ. I figure lots of people are in the same situation, thus board prices rise. Oh well.

The Mushihimesama PCB price is on the rise too, which surprised me. A year or two ago they would sell for around 60-70k yen on YAJ, now they go for around 100k.

Relative to other SH3 STG PCBs, and when taking into account production numbers, Espgaluda 2 is easily the most undervalued of them all. They only made 800 of them, roughly the same as Deathsmiles or DFK 1.5, but the latter two sell for 2-3x as much as E2, which doesn't make a lot of sense (especially since all three games are highly regarded). If I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it remaining undervalued in the coming years.

Indeed. Espgaluda II is my favorite Cave game, weird how "cheap" it is considering its relative rarity, and I have seen it rise slowly in price for the past couple of years, so I want to pick it up ASAP. Did luck out and picked up a Deathsmiles board last November in Surugaya for cheap-ish, around 105K yen.


Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #281 on: July 22, 2020, 11:24:11 PM »
Guwange sold for 143,000 yen at KVClab:

http://kvclab.com/shopdetail/000000000486/CAVE/page1/order/

Mushihimesama sold for 96,800 yen at KVClab:

http://kvclab.com/shopdetail/000000000413/CAVE/page1/order/

Progear sold for 59,400 yen at KVClab:

http://kvclab.com/shopdetail/000000000182/CAVE/page1/order/
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Offline Liquidus0

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #282 on: July 23, 2020, 07:53:25 AM »
Guwange PCB sold on Suruga-ya for 159 000 Yen during flash sale.

https://www.suruga-ya.jp/product/detail/180000374

Offline peg

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #283 on: July 23, 2020, 02:29:03 PM »
The Mushihimesama PCB price is on the rise too, which surprised me. A year or two ago they would sell for around 60-70k yen on YAJ, now they go for around 100k.

Relative to other SH3 STG PCBs, and when taking into account production numbers, Espgaluda 2 is easily the most undervalued of them all. They only made 800 of them, roughly the same as Deathsmiles or DFK 1.5, but the latter two sell for 2-3x as much as E2, which doesn't make a lot of sense (especially since all three games are highly regarded). If I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it remaining undervalued in the coming years.

Based on my data they have the following production numbers (at least initially)

Deathsmiles: 650-700
Espgaluda II: 800
DFK (1.0 + 1.5): 800

For whatever reason DFK seems to be a more rare in practice than the other 2, seems they may have converted a bunch of them.

That said, I do think Espgaluda II is undervalued compared to the other 2.

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #284 on: July 23, 2020, 05:36:35 PM »

Based on my data they have the following production numbers (at least initially)

Deathsmiles: 650-700
Espgaluda II: 800
DFK (1.0 + 1.5): 800


Well, that's basically just copy-pasting my production estimates from the below thread after I cracked the SH3 serial number code for PCBs like DS and DFK two years ago:

http://cave-stg.com/forum/index.php?topic=1754.0

You did revise DS down to a 650-700 range from my estimate of 700, which is probably because the highest serial on cavedb.com is 40609 = (the 649th PCB made). That is a reasonable adjustment until more serial numbers are revealed which might definitively show the production was 700.

RE: DFK conversions. 200 of the 300 Akai Katana PCBs were converted from DFK PCBs. This could have been from the known 800 DFK PCBs, or it could have been from an extra 200 that were made but never sold, which were in a run above the known production number of DFK. In other words in this scenario they made 1000 PCBs at the time of DFK, but only programmed 800 as DFK (and decided to not program the rest due to sales numbers), leaving 200 left which were used for later games. Either that or the AKs came from the original batch of 800, meaning there are no more than 600 extant DFK (1.0 + 1.5) PCBs. Probably the second hypothesis is more likely, but that's just a guess. It would explain why DFK seems more scarce in the market and sells for a lot more.

I think I will have to start including estimates of both initial production and extant PCBs for each game, as in some cases the numbers vary quite a lot.
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Offline peg

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #285 on: July 23, 2020, 06:03:46 PM »
The ~600 number for DFK makes sense to me based on the number of PCBs I've observed.  Fits right in line with the Deathsmiles and Espgaluda II numbers, which both show up more frequently.

Offline RandomRetro

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #286 on: July 24, 2020, 11:38:52 AM »

Offline EOJ

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Re: Cave Arcade Sales Tracker Spreadsheet
« Reply #287 on: July 29, 2020, 01:09:14 AM »
I sold an Akai Katana partial kit (PCB + original artset) for $3700 here.
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