I've discovered that since Pink Sweets, all Cave serial numbers until SDOJ are not random numbers as some have thought, rather they follow a set format:
PREFIX (MP-, DSB-, AK-, etc) + BATCH NUMBER (One digit) + RUN NUMBER (Two digits) + 0 + PCB NUMBER (One digit)BATCH numbers indicates TENS, RUN numbers indicate HUNDREDS, and PCB numbers indicate 0-9. Thus, combine them in the order RUN + BATCH + PCB to arrive at the production number for a particular PCB.
To take an example, the Serial number MP-20307 is broken down as PREFIX (MP-) + BATCH NUMBER (2) + RUN NUMBER (03) + 0 + PCB NUMBER (7), which indicates it is the 327th PCB produced.
BATCH NUMBERs and RUN NUMBERs begin at 0. PCB NUMBERs also begin at 0, except for the first PCB in the first BATCH/RUN, (e.g. there is 00001, but no 00000).
So we find the attested serial number sequences:
-00001
-00002
-00003
etc, up to 00009
Then it shifts to the next BATCH NUMBER, giving
-10000
-10001
-10002
Then, after reaching 10009, it switches to the next BATCH NUMBER:
-20000
-20001
-20002
etc.
After reaching 90009, it switches to the next RUN NUMBER (and the BATCH NUMBER returns to 0), thus we find:
-00100
-00101
-00102
etc.
Continuing up to 90109. Then we continue with 00200, 00201, 00202, etc, up to 90209, and the pattern repeats over again (if there were more RUNs produced).
RUN NUMBERS can go over 9, the highest I've seen is 18 (e.g. CA-51801), but from what I have seen the PCB number never goes above 9, and the number before it is always 0 (this is what we would expect from such a numbering system).
Another way to look at BATCH NUMBERs and PCB NUMBERs is that each contains a digit of the full PCB number in a RUN. So, with serial MP-00001, if we take out everything except the BATCH NUMBER and PCB NUMBER, we are left with 01, meaning it was the 1st PCB produced. And similarly with serial CA-90009, we are left with 99, meaning it was the 99th PCB produced. The serial MP-10000 (see my avatar!) indicates it was the 10th PCB produced. And so on. So, this shows the sequence of PCBs made in a RUN. This does not work well in certain cases, however, such as the serial AK-00100, as the BATCH + PCB is 00 (which does not indicate it is the 1st PCB made in its RUN, nor that it is the 100th PCB produced overall, even though both of these statements are true). This is why I separate BATCH and PCB numbers. As mentioned before, the first RUN has 99 PCBs, whereas subsequent RUNs consist of 100 PCBs each.
Have a look at all the PCB serial numbers recorded at https://cavedb.com/, and you will see this pattern very clearly.For many games, we can estimate the total PCB run due to this serial number information. Let's take DSMBL and Akai Katana for examples. I have yet to find a DSMBL with a RUN NUMBER higher than 1 or an Akai Katana that has a RUN NUMBER over 2. The highest AK serial number I have seen is AK-70207 (the 277th PCB produced), whereas the highest DSMBL Serial number I have seen is DSB-90103 (the 193rd PCB produced). So we can estimate there were approximately 193-200 DSMBL PCBs made and 277-300 AK PCBs made (it is unclear if the final run of each game was partial or full, but it is most likely that each run was full).
-----
SDOJ has a slightly different system, consisting of the PREFIX (SDO-) + RUN NUMBER (0 or 1) + 0 + PCB NUMBER (three digits). Thus we find serials such as SDO-00173 and SDO-10173, but not SDO-20173.
Espgaluda 2, Mushihimetama and Ibara Kuro, which were released before PS, have a simple serial code of PREFIX-(0)000, with the last three digits indicating the PCB number (E-0018, E-0748, IB-073, etc). Ibara and Mushihimesama only have a four digit PCB number, from roughly 1400 up to 4000 (I am not aware of any over 4000 or any under 1400).
PART 2: LIST OF TOTAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES OF EACH GAME BASED ON SERIAL NUMBER DATAHere is a list of each SH3 (CV-1000) game and the current best estimate of its total production, based on serial number data, and categorized by rarity:
Super Rare (less than 10):
Mushihimesama Futari Red Label: 3 (only given to prize winners in a CAVE scoring contest)
Very Rare (less than 100):
Akai Katana Limited Ver: 40 ~ 50
Mushihimesama Cave Matsuri Ver 1.5: 50 (maybe higher?)
Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.0: 50 ~ 100
Dodonpachi Daifukkatsu Ver 1.0: 50 ~ 100
Rare (100 ~ 200):
Ibara Kuro Black Label: 100 ~ 150 (initial print was 100, but two small additional prints were made, probably totaling no more than 50 additional PCBs)
Mushihimesama Futari Black Label: 150
Mushihimesama Futari Black Label Another Ver: 200
Deathsmiles Mega Black Label: 200
Dodonpachi Daifukkatsu Black Label: 200
Somewhat Rare (300-350)Akai Katana: 300
Dodonpachi Saidaioujou: 350 (currently available serial number data only supports 350 PCBs made: 250 in the first run and 100 in the second)
Somewhat Common (400 ~ 600):
Muchi Muchi Pork: 450 (serial number data indicates up to 500 were originally made, but 50 were unsold and used to print MFBL)
Mushihimetama: 500 (initial production; the extant number is certainly much lower. Some of these were unsold and converted to Ibara Kuro or Mushihimesama, and possibly other games)
Dodonpachi Daifukkatsu Ver 1.5: 500 ~ 550 (700 ~ 750 were originally made, but 200 of these were unsold and later reprogrammed to Akai Katana)
Pink Sweets: 500-600 (initial production was about 700, but several of these were unsold and converted to other games such as Futari. The actual number of extant PS PCBs is unknown, but a reasonable estimate is around 500-600)
Common (700 ~ 800):
Deathsmiles: 700
Espgaluda 2: 800
Very Common (1000 ~ 1500):
Ibara: 1000 ~ 1500
Mushihimesama: 1000 ~ 1500
Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5: 1050 ~ 1150
